Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.103554 0.116615 0.130718 0.147082 0.165557 0.185778 0.209602
2025-12-14 0.078620 0.094875 0.113694 0.137111 0.165508 0.198875 0.241130
2025-12-21 0.061514 0.079037 0.100650 0.129317 0.166430 0.212975 0.275974
2025-12-28 0.051228 0.069804 0.094116 0.128361 0.175520 0.238428 0.329140
2026-01-04 0.042073 0.060571 0.086169 0.124321 0.180015 0.258779 0.379395
2026-01-11 0.035577 0.053950 0.080748 0.122891 0.187920 0.285154 0.442880
2026-01-18 0.030790 0.049042 0.077025 0.123331 0.198660 0.317447 0.521067
2026-01-25 0.025510 0.042531 0.069865 0.117301 0.198380 0.332779 0.575441
2026-02-01 0.021098 0.036716 0.062916 0.110470 0.195641 0.343653 0.624419
2026-02-08 0.017970 0.032574 0.058114 0.106499 0.197121 0.361914 0.689713
2026-02-15 0.015332 0.028886 0.053537 0.102175 0.197226 0.377699 0.753339
2026-02-22 0.013828 0.027046 0.052022 0.103294 0.207736 0.414598 0.864758
2026-03-01 0.011852 0.024051 0.047986 0.099078 0.207514 0.431468 0.940856
2026-03-08 0.010391 0.021854 0.045182 0.096915 0.211203 0.457115 1.041253
2026-03-15 0.009152 0.019922 0.042627 0.094862 0.214823 0.483393 1.148819
2026-03-22 0.008423 0.018965 0.041974 0.096866 0.227849 0.532848 1.320817
2026-03-29 0.007557 0.017569 0.040151 0.095909 0.233894 0.567448 1.464303
2026-04-05 0.006901 0.016552 0.039028 0.096425 0.243619 0.612733 1.644947
2026-04-12 0.006388 0.015794 0.038394 0.098036 0.256416 0.668128 1.864751
2026-04-19 0.005628 0.014312 0.035787 0.094212 0.254470 0.685230 1.983051
2026-04-26 0.004918 0.012845 0.032998 0.089447 0.249164 0.692474 2.075100
2026-05-03 0.004396 0.011788 0.031098 0.086766 0.249177 0.714519 2.216509
2026-05-10 0.003917 0.010773 0.029157 0.083647 0.247397 0.731209 2.345580